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Decision making

3,263 bytes added, 23:23, 26 October 2015
Desirability bias
Decision making is that people look at the pros and cons of different courses of action and assign a positive value to the pros and a negative value to the cons. Then they evaluate the probabilities that the pro will happen, as opposed to the con. On the basis of this evaluation, they make the choice that has the best possible outcome<ref>Games At Work: How to Recognize and Reduce Office Politics by Mauricio Goldstein, Phil Read, Kevin Cashman, p.110</ref>.
==Group Decision making==
Group decision making raze many problems and obstacles. The basic problem is the [[the problem of coordination|problem of connection lines]], which implies that as the number of members in a group of decision makers grows, the time needed for decision making raze by the power. Another problem is the need to create mutual language (also calle [[SON]]). And also, different deductions, different values and different interests, may make coordination even more complex. Above these, there is a need for mutual culture of deliberation which enables productive discussion, a culture that permit criticism (which is needed for falsification) and culture that enable the creation of the minmiun-sublte solution which is needed for effective solutions.
 
===See also===
*[[finding creative solutions in a group|Finding creative solutions in a group]]
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiral_of_silence#Background Spiral of silence]
*[[decision making in social networks]]
*[http://2012books.lardbucket.org/books/a-primer-on-communication-studies/s14-03-problem-solving-and-decision-m.html Problem Solving and Decision Making in Groups]
==Intuitive Decision Making==
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.
Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others"<ref> Kruger, Justin; David Dunning (1999). "[[feeling of knowledge|Unskilled and Unaware of It]]: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (6): 1121–34.</ref>
===Overcomming of errors in decision making,due to intutive decision making===
==Brain process involving decision making==
[[File:Indevidual decision operatous.jpg|center|640px]] Usually People uses [[system 1]] to decide. They will try to [[options|decide which option]] will give best [[value|values]], based on information gatherd in the [[dlPFC]]<ref>[http://www.yorku.ca/vgoel/reprints/Goel_Cognition_03.pdf Dolan, R., Explaining modulation of reasoning by belief, Cognition, 2003, 87, 1, B11-B22]</ref>, and calculated by the [[vmPFC]]<ref>[http://www.its.caltech.edu/~psh/European_Journal_of_Neuroscience_2012_Sokol-Hessner.pdf Sokol-Hessner et al., Decision value computation in DLPFC and VMPFC adjusts to the available decision time, 2012]</ref>. Dolan also found that the PFC also connected to conflict solving.
When people scurtenise the world, they are compering the phenomena to information they gatherd in their [[MON]]s. A contrediction is detected by the [[ACC]] and will intiate [[RPE]], which activate [[system 2]] in order to solve the contrediction. system 2 will oprate also when a novel task or complext rational task will presnt themselves.
===Finding answers to comlex questions during a brake===
Suggesting: '''Neural redirection''' is done while the brain is "rest". When we try to solve problems we try to go along familiar paths, but when we give the brain a rest, he finds alternative paths which are more minimum-energy (more efficient or more suitable). He basically finds solutions to complex answers during a break. What is the mechanism of redirection, I do not know yet.
 
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleep_and_learning#cite_note-3 Sleep can boost learning]<ref>[http://therapeuticliteracycenter.com/the-role-of-sleep-in-learning-memory-and-health/ Role of Sleep in Learning, Memory, and Health, Maria Bagby]</ref><ref>[https://sleep.med.harvard.edu/news/120/To+Understand+The+Big+Picture+Give+It+Time+And+Sleep "To understand the big picture, give it time – and sleep". EurekAlert. April 20, 2007. Retrieved 2007-04-23.]</ref><ref>Stickgold, R. & Walker, M.P. (2004). Sleep-dependent learning and memory consolidation. Neuron, 44, 121-133.</ref><ref>Peyrache, A.; Khamassi, M.; Benchenane, K.; Wiener, S. I.; Battaglia, F. P. (2009). "Replay of rule-learning related neural patterns in the prefrontal cortex during sleep.". Nature Neuroscience 12 (7): 919–926.</ref>
The best brakes are good overnight sleep and early in the morning when we are awake in bed.
 
===Desirability bias===
When people desire somthing tohy will overestimate the likelihood. They will also behave in accordance to the chances they believe it will happen<ref>[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.1918/abstract?campaign=wolearlyview Scherer et al (2015) Behaving Optimistically: How the (Un)Desirability of an Outcome Can Bias People's Preparations for It]</ref>
 
===Social desirability bias===
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_desirability_bias Social desirability bias] is a social science research term that describes the tendency of survey respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others. It can take the form of over-reporting "good behavior" or under-reporting "bad", or undesirable behavior. The tendency poses a serious problem with conducting research with self-reports, especially questionnaires. This bias interferes with the interpretation of average tendencies as well as individual differences.
==Decision Making Settings==
==Decision-making under uncertanity==
See also [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Info-gap_decision_theory nformation-gap theory], and this article<ref>[http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=147395&fileOId=625124 ROBUST DECISION-MAKING UNDER SEVERE UNCERTAINTY FOR CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT]</ref>
==Decision Making and Technology==
[[decision making by emails|Decision making by emails]]
 
[[decision making by face to face meetings|Decision making by face to face meetings]]
==Other subjects of decision making==
[[decision making times|Decision making times]]
[[experience|Experience]]
 
[[neuronal decision making model]]