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Mechanistic Model for Decision Making

46 bytes added, 06:22, 22 April 2018
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'''[[Value]]''': The outcomes have an effect on our physical or emotional resources. They carry a value. The value may be rewarding, neutral or taxing. The Magnitude of the value can also vary from none to fatal in taxing value or from none to overwhelming good, in positive values.
'''[[Probability of success]]''': Every [[options|option]] has some chances to succeed. Every option is constructed from a cascade of events, and every event has some probability to happen. It may depend on the known probabilities of an event to happen (for instance we may assume that our chances of winning the lottery has have a probability of 1 to a million), or the level of corroboration (the amount number of times we tested the theory). The more we corroborated the theory we may have more confidence we can predict her chance to occur (from an epistemological perspective we do not have any way to predict the future, bet let’s leave this for now). Consequently, when an option has many steps (events that should occur in order for her to succeed), or/and when the events are not well tested, the probability of success fall.
'''[[Resources]]''': For every action, which is based on the option we selected, there is a tax on our resources. Before we evaluate an options, we should also consider how much resources do we have, and if we have the specific resources needed for the [[options|option]].
'''[[Evaluation]]''': When we have to choose from a set of options, we should evaluate every option total outcomes values, the resource it demands, and the probability of success.
'''[[Selection]]''': We should compere compare the total value of every [[options]] and choose the best value. Yet for many reasons we will discusses discuss later, we may not evaluate at all, or choose the option we are more familiar with, even if there are better [[options]]
'''[[Doing]]''': Every selection should be followed by actions designed in the selection phase.
'''[[Learning]]''': We learn from hypothesizing and from doing. Learning through the decision process and from the doing, is crucial for developing corroborated [[SON]]. corroborated SON is the base for our ability to predict well. The SON is built from theories we are building and testing throughout our entire life. We [[learn]] from others, or we conjecture about how things workswork. We may then test the theories, and see if they are false or corroborate (see Karl popper Popper on terminology<ref>Popper, K. (2002). The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Routledge Classics). Routledge. </ref>).
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==See also==
[[optimized decision making]]
 
'''Next: [[Neuropsychology elements in decision making]]'''
==References==